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The nation’s gross home product — the broadest measure of financial exercise — declined at an annualized fee of 1.4% between January and March in an abrupt reversal of the prior yr’s sturdy progress.

Whereas one quarter doesn’t but make a pattern, it’s a warning signal for a way the restoration goes: Two straight quarters of declining progress meet a generally used definition of a recession.

It was a marked slowdown from the 6.9% progress tempo recorded within the ultimate quarter of final yr, and the worst efficiency because the pandemic recession within the second quarter of 2020. Economists had predicted an annualized progress fee of 1.1%, in accordance with Refinitiv.

A lot of the decline was as a result of a lower in stock funding, which had been booming within the ultimate months of 2021.

Exports and authorities spending additionally fell, whereas imports rose. Client spending, which is important to the financial system, elevated as costs saved rising.

The value index monitoring private consumption expenditure rose 7% within the first three months of the yr, or 5.2% when stripping out vitality and meals costs.

A second estimate of first quarter GDP progress might be revealed on the finish of Could.

Correction: An earlier model of this story incorrectly acknowledged that the financial system expanded within the first quarter of the yr.

It is a creating story. It will likely be up to date.

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